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2024-12-13 04:45:13

Pacific Securities: The historical low of the valuation office of liquor industry is about to be repaired. The Pacific Securities Research Report pointed out that the liquor industry is rationally slowing down, and the valuation office is at a historical low, and it is about to be repaired. Next year, the leading growth target will generally drop to single digits. However, the accumulated inventory risk and pricing pressure still need time to gradually ease after the imbalance between supply and demand has intensified in the past two years and the previous industry bubble has receded. With the economic recovery stimulated by this round of policies and the stabilization of the bottom of the real estate industry, the liquor industry is expected to usher in a wave of recovery. Since 2023, industry differentiation has intensified, but with the improvement of management level and refined channel operation in recent years, excellent wine enterprises have stronger marketing foundation and anti-risk ability compared with previous downward cycles. The price of high-end wine determines the brand position, so the approval price is more important, which depends on the choice of quantity and price and the control of approval price by wine enterprises. Sub-high-end needs to pay more attention to channel risks. The high growth brought by pre-distribution investment needs to be tested in the downward period, and once the channel collapses and stalls, it is difficult to reverse it. Real estate wine pays attention to the growth momentum of internal product structure and the market potential in and around the province. The upgrading speed determines the slope and the ceiling determines the space. Suggested attention: Wuliangye, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, Shuijingfang, etc.The central bank today conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 141.6 billion yuan, and the winning bid rate was 1.50%, which was the same as before. Today, 51.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase expired, and the net investment on that day was 90.3 billion yuan.Huaxi Securities: In 2025, the rate of RRR cut and interest rate cut may not be lower than 50bp and 20bp. Huaxi Securities Research Report pointed out that this Politburo meeting revisited "moderately loose monetary policy", and the market inevitably associated with the magnificent combination of monetary and fiscal policies in 2008-2010. Specific to this round of monetary policy, it may be similar to it, not only the tone has changed, but also the framework has changed from the previous cross-cycle (or both cross-cycle and counter-cycle) to counter-cycle adjustment, which is likely to point to an increase in the adjustment range of reserve ratio and policy interest rate. Looking forward to 2025, the rate of single RRR cut and interest rate cut of monetary policy may not be lower than 50bp and 20bp (the rate in 2024), and the possibility of further increasing the rate in the face of extreme circumstances is not ruled out. The specific degree and duration of easing may depend on the economic situation.


Lee Ka Chiu John: Hong Kong is committed to becoming a leading global risk management center. In a speech at the Asia Insurance Forum 2024 held in Hong Kong on the 10th, Lee Ka Chiu John, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) said that Hong Kong is committed to becoming a leading global risk management center. Lee Ka Chiu John said that as one of the three largest financial centers in the world, Hong Kong has about 160 authorized insurance companies, including six of the top ten insurance companies in the world. At present, Hong Kong has issued five catastrophe bonds, raising more than 700 million US dollars to resist typhoons, earthquakes and other natural disasters and provide risk mitigation measures for the global joint response to climate change. He stressed that as the region with the highest concentration of insurance companies and the highest insurance density in Asia, Hong Kong is committed to becoming a leading global risk management center. The SAR Government will continue to invite mainland and overseas enterprises in China to set up exclusive self-insurance companies in Hong Kong.Zhongyuan Trust Yunnan Green Food Co., Ltd. established the Plateau Modern Agriculture Investment Fund with a capital contribution of 500 million yuan. According to Tianyancha App, the Yunnan Plateau Modern Agriculture Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) was recently established, and the executive partner is Kunming Jingtou Equity Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a capital contribution of about 500 million yuan. Its business scope is to engage in equity investment, investment management and asset management with private funds. According to the partner information, the fund is jointly funded by Zhongyuan Trust Co., Ltd., Yunnan Green Food Investment Group Co., Ltd. and Kunming Jingtou Equity Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd.Institutional investors are optimistic about the long-term value of dividend assets. Today, the turnover of Standard & Poor's dividend ETF(562060) exceeded 26 million yuan. On December 10, the Shanghai Composite Index of Standard & Poor's dividend ETF(562060) closed flat with a turnover of 26.0237 million yuan. The constituent stocks are mixed. In terms of rising, Aopu Technology leads the rise, and Yongxing Materials follows. In terms of decline, Voice Holdings led the decline, and Pingmei shares followed. According to market analysis, dividend assets with low valuation and high dividend have obvious advantages in low interest rate environment, and institutional investors are optimistic about the long-term value of dividend assets. Since October, dividend assets have been in a period of adjustment, but the rise in recent days is directly related to the decline in the yield of government bonds. Lin Rongxiong, chief strategist of SDIC Securities, said that facing 2025, high dividend is still an effective strategy to obtain absolute income. It is suggested that investors pay attention to the band property of dividend assets, and the real dividend money is the key to overcome the high dividend index and obtain excess returns.


Today, Shanzi Hi-Tech's daily limit was 300 million yuan for Ningbo Zhongshan West Road of Yongxing Securities, and Shanzi Hi-Tech's daily limit was 6.211 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 32.07%. After-hours data showed that Shenzhen Stock Connect bought 203 million yuan for special seats and sold 199 million yuan, while Yongxing Securities sold 300 million yuan for Ningbo Zhongshan West Road and 91.8558 million yuan for special seats for one institution.Huaxi Securities: In 2025, the rate of RRR cut and interest rate cut may not be lower than 50bp and 20bp. Huaxi Securities Research Report pointed out that this Politburo meeting revisited "moderately loose monetary policy", and the market inevitably associated with the magnificent combination of monetary and fiscal policies in 2008-2010. Specific to this round of monetary policy, it may be similar to it, not only the tone has changed, but also the framework has changed from the previous cross-cycle (or both cross-cycle and counter-cycle) to counter-cycle adjustment, which is likely to point to an increase in the adjustment range of reserve ratio and policy interest rate. Looking forward to 2025, the rate of single RRR cut and interest rate cut of monetary policy may not be lower than 50bp and 20bp (the rate in 2024), and the possibility of further increasing the rate in the face of extreme circumstances is not ruled out. The specific degree and duration of easing may depend on the economic situation.The snow removal operation of several expressways in Gansu Province continued due to the temporary control of snowfall. It was learned from the traffic police department of Gansu Province that due to the large-scale snowfall and road icing, as of 7: 30 on the 10th, several expressways in Gansu Province were temporarily controlled. The highway maintenance department is continuously carrying out ice and snow removal operations.

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